The race to understand immunopathology in COVID-19: Perspectives on the impact of quantitative approaches to understand within-host interactions.

The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the need for the increased integration of modelling and data analysis to public health, experimental, and clinical studies. Throughout the first two years of the pandemic, there has been a concerted effort to improve our understanding of the within-host immune response to the SARS-CoV-2 virus to provide better predictions of COVID-19 severity, treatment and vaccine development questions, and insights into viral evolution and the impacts of variants on immunopathology. Here we provide perspectives on what has been accomplished using quantitative methods, including predictive modelling, population genetics, machine learning, and dimensionality reduction techniques, in the first 26 months of the COVID-19 pandemic approaches, and where we go from here to improve our responses to this and future pandemics.

Population Genomics Approaches for Genetic Characterization of SARS-CoV-2 Lineages.

The genome of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the pathogen that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has been sequenced at an unprecedented scale leading to a tremendous amount of viral genome sequencing data. To assist in tracing infection pathways and design preventive strategies, a deep understanding of the viral genetic diversity landscape is needed. We present here a set of genomic surveillance tools from population genetics which can be used to better understand the evolution of this virus in humans. To illustrate the utility of this toolbox, we detail an in depth analysis of the genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyzed 329,854 high-quality consensus sequences published in the GISAID database during the pre-vaccination phase. We demonstrate that, compared to standard phylogenetic approaches, haplotype networks can be computed efficiently on much larger datasets. This approach enables real-time lineage identification, a clear description of the relationship between variants of concern, and efficient detection of recurrent mutations. Furthermore, time series change of Tajima's D by haplotype provides a powerful metric of lineage expansion. Finally, principal component analysis (PCA) highlights key steps in variant emergence and facilitates the visualization of genomic variation in the context of SARS-CoV-2 diversity. The computational framework presented here is simple to implement and insightful for real-time genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 and could be applied to any pathogen that threatens the health of populations of humans and other organisms.

Multiscale PHATE identifies multimodal signatures of COVID-19.

As the biomedical community produces datasets that are increasingly complex and high dimensional, there is a need for more sophisticated computational tools to extract biological insights. We present Multiscale PHATE, a method that sweeps through all levels of data granularity to learn abstracted biological features directly predictive of disease outcome. Built on a coarse-graining process called diffusion condensation, Multiscale PHATE learns a data topology that can be analyzed at coarse resolutions for high-level summarizations of data and at fine resolutions for detailed representations of subsets. We apply Multiscale PHATE to a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) dataset with 54 million cells from 168 hospitalized patients and find that patients who die show CD16hiCD66blo neutrophil and IFN-γ+ granzyme B+ Th17 cell responses. We also show that population groupings from Multiscale PHATE directly fed into a classifier predict disease outcome more accurately than naive featurizations of the data. Multiscale PHATE is broadly generalizable to different data types, including flow cytometry, single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq), single-cell sequencing assay for transposase-accessible chromatin (scATAC-seq), and clinical variables.

Patient health records and whole viral genomes from an early SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in a Quebec hospital reveal features associated with favorable outcomes.

The first confirmed case of COVID-19 in Quebec, Canada, occurred at Verdun Hospital on February 25, 2020. A month later, a localized outbreak was observed at this hospital. We performed tiled amplicon whole genome nanopore sequencing on nasopharyngeal swabs from all SARS-CoV-2 positive samples from 31 March to 17 April 2020 in 2 local hospitals to assess viral diversity (unknown at the time in Quebec) and potential associations with clinical outcomes. We report 264 viral genomes from 242 individuals-both staff and patients-with associated clinical features and outcomes, as well as longitudinal samples and technical replicates. Viral lineage assessment identified multiple subclades in both hospitals, with a predominant subclade in the Verdun outbreak, indicative of hospital-acquired transmission. Dimensionality reduction identified two subclades with mutations of clinical interest, namely in the Spike protein, that evaded supervised lineage assignment methods-including Pangolin and NextClade supervised lineage assignment tools. We also report that certain symptoms (headache, myalgia and sore throat) are significantly associated with favorable patient outcomes. Our findings demonstrate the strength of unsupervised, data-driven analyses whilst suggesting that caution should be used when employing supervised genomic workflows, particularly during the early stages of a pandemic.

The mutational landscape of SARS-CoV-2 variants diversifies T cell targets in an HLA-supertype-dependent manner.

The rapid, global dispersion of SARS-CoV-2 has led to the emergence of a diverse range of variants. Here, we describe how the mutational landscape of SARS-CoV-2 has shaped HLA-restricted T cell immunity at the population level during the first year of the pandemic. We analyzed a total of 330,246 high-quality SARS-CoV-2 genome assemblies, sampled across 143 countries and all major continents from December 2019 to December 2020 before mass vaccination or the rise of the Delta variant. We observed that proline residues are preferentially removed from the proteome of prevalent mutants, leading to a predicted global loss of SARS-CoV-2 T cell epitopes in individuals expressing HLA-B alleles of the B7 supertype family; this is largely driven by a dominant C-to-U mutation type at the RNA level. These results indicate that B7-supertype-associated epitopes, including the most immunodominant ones, were more likely to escape CD8+ T cell immunosurveillance during the first year of the pandemic.

The mutational landscape of SARS-CoV-2 variants diversifies T cell targets in an HLA supertype-dependent manner

The rapid, global dispersion of SARS-CoV-2 has led to the emergence of a diverse range of variants. Here, we describe how the mutational landscape of SARS-CoV-2 has shaped HLA-restricted T cell immunity at the population level during the first year of the pandemic. We analyzed a total of 330,246 high quality SARS-CoV-2 genome assemblies, sampled across 143 countries and all major continents from December 2019 to December 2020 before mass vaccination or the rise of the Delta variant. We observed that proline residues are preferentially removed from the proteome of prevalent mutants, leading to a predicted global loss of SARS-CoV-2 T cell epitopes in individuals expressing HLA-B alleles of the B7 supertype family;this is largely driven by a dominant C-to-U mutation type at the RNA level. These results indicate that B7 supertype associated epitopes, including the most immunodominant ones, were more likely to escape CD8+ T cell immunosurveillance during the first year of the pandemic. Graphical Abstract

Genetics of symptom remission in outpatients with COVID-19.

We conducted a genome-wide association study of time to remission of COVID-19 symptoms in 1723 outpatients with at least one risk factor for disease severity from the COLCORONA clinical trial. We found a significant association at 5p13.3 (rs1173773; P = 4.94 × 10-8) near the natriuretic peptide receptor 3 gene (NPR3). By day 15 of the study, 44%, 54% and 59% of participants with 0, 1, or 2 copies of the effect allele respectively, had symptom remission. In 851 participants not treated with colchicine (placebo), there was a significant association at 9q33.1 (rs62575331; P = 2.95 × 10-8) in interaction with colchicine (P = 1.19 × 10-5) without impact on risk of hospitalisations, highlighting a possibly shared mechanistic pathway. By day 15 of the study, 46%, 62% and 64% of those with 0, 1, or 2 copies of the effect allele respectively, had symptom remission. The findings need to be replicated and could contribute to the biological understanding of COVID-19 symptom remission.

SARS-CoV-2 Receptor ACE2 Gene Is Associated with Hypertension and Severity of COVID 19: Interaction with Sex, Obesity, and Smoking.

BACKGROUND: Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) has been identified as the entry receptor for coronaviruses into human cells, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Since hypertension (HT) is a leading comorbidity in non-survivors of COVID-19, we tested for association between ACE2 gene and HT in interaction with specific pre-existing conditions known to be associated with COVID-19 severity. METHODS: Genetic analysis of ACE2 gene was conducted in French-Canadian (FC) and British populations. RESULTS: In FC individuals, the T allele of the single nucleotide polymorphism rs2074192 of ACE2 gene was a risk factor for HT in adult obese males [odds ratio (OR) = 1.39, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06-1.83)] and even more so in obese males who smoked (OR = 1.67, CI: 1.24-2.55), but not in lean males, non-smoker males or females. The T allele was significantly associated with severity of HT and with earlier penetrance of HT in obese smoking males. Significant interaction between the T allele and obesity was present in both sexes. The association of ACE2 (rs233575) genotype with blood pressure was also seen in adolescents but the interaction with obesity was present only in females. Several variants in ACE2 gene were found to be associated with HT in obese, smoking males in British individuals of the UK Biobank. In addition, we observed more severe outcomes to COVID-19 in association with ACE2 risk alleles in obese, smoking males. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first report that ACE2 variants are associated with earlier penetrance and more severe HT and with more severe outcomes of COVID-19 in obese smoking males.